Prediction

[zeeth_kyrah]

It is observed that the closer to accurate a model is, the closer to reality one's predictions become. Therefore a correct model allows us to speak predictively on behaviors and events.

So I am going to say this:

President Donald J Trump is a psychopath, a rapist, and a hateful person. He seeks his own benefit above all others. He would not let himself lose a fight if he had other options apparent to him, including wrongful options. This includes the presidential election.

And the GOP, having abandoned their party platform to favor a cult of personality, are openly complicit in enabling his misdeeds. If they do not disband entirely, or replace the majority of their leadership, they will attempt this again and not too long from now. After all, the GOP guiding principle of victory is "fight like aggressive chimpanzees and give no quarter".

If you think I'm wrong on this, wait and see.

Comments

[siliconshaman]

There are two possibilities that I can see if he loses the election. 1] he will resign ahead of January, and ask Pense when he steps up as President pro-temp to pardon him of all prior crimes.

2] he will refuse to accept defeat and attempt a coup.

The latter is more likely than the former since that would mean he'd have to a] accept defeat and b] admit hes actually committed crimes. Neither of which is at all likely given his ego.

That said, I regard the possibility that he will either cheat and "win" the election, like last time or he will forestall the election in some way rendering the possibility of a defeat moot.

I think it more likely he will go for the former than the latter, as 'winning' by cheating gives him a fig-leaf of legality. I suspect what will actually happen is that he will try to claim victory after cheating and fail, then try to deny any claims of electoral fraud and smear anyone that objects or protests.. and basically slide desperately flailing and grasping at power into dictatorship as he tries to silence any dissent.

Because underneath it all, he's a scared little boy who desperately craves attention to fill [however fleetingly] that hole inside him where his heart should be, and doesn't understand other people or the world around him.

[librarygeek]

Only thing missing in your combined analyses: he's extremely ill, terrified of illness to a neurotic level, and if we can find a way to get him out without making him admit either the loss or the illness, he might actually resign merely to maintain his hero persona with his masses. Remember, narcissist.

I'm from Atlantic City. Zeeth_kyrah is absolutely correct in the "psychopath, a rapist, and a hateful person" summation. Go research the Trump helicopter crash, my family lost a friend in that.

I can't listen to his voice anymore, but just watching video on mute, that he's ill, terrified, and trying to get OFF this tiger of a Presidency during a pandemic, is way too obvious to me. I don't want to pity him, he hurt MY family members and family.

How do we make it appear that by resigning, other people will have to clean up after him, AGAIN? He LOVES getting all the adoration, and making other people deal with the sewage.

By denying he had mini-strokes, when *nobody else* mentioned those specifically, it pretty much solidified my belief that it's precisely what has been happening. I watched my beloved grandmother with those, paranoia and senile psychosis were some of her diagnoses. 😭

[zeeth_kyrah]

Both my grandmothers died of strokes; one of a big stroke, one of a series of mini-strokes while she was in a nursing home. I sympathise. I also noticed his suspiciously specific denial, and I'd have a lot more sympathy for him if he were a more sympathetic person.

I think the problem with getting him to resign is, "President" is too much of an attention-getter. Maybe if someone offered a TV show where all he had to do was give his opinion on things? But his behavior looks like someone terrified of weakness - someone who truly believes that strength is everything - thus he denigrates anyone whose strength (whether strength of body, belief, or something else) is not absolute, anyone whose strength failed them in some way. Especially if he was criticized for not being like them.

So we have to make him think he's showing fierce and undying strength. But if one conflates health with strength, then to show that he is sick is to make himself open to attack. In a world of strength-first people, the sick animal gets eaten.

Perhaps if he were convinced that resignation would be an act of defiance, he might consider it. But then I think he'd also have to believe it would increase his personal power in some way, such as by getting him lots of positive attention, or by increasing the profits of his holdings in some enduring way, or perhaps believing that resignation would give him a way to avoid criminal prosecution.

Well ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

I think the first assessment was the most accurate.

The subsequent ones assume he is capable of acting rationally, that is, look at the possible outcomes and make a choice using logic which requires a clear assessment of strengths and weaknesses. Observation of past behavior indicates that this is beyond his capacity. The world in his head bears little resemblance to the world outside it.

Re: Well ...

[librarygeek]

Correct. He is not rational, and has not been as long as my family has known him. But he's ALWAYS been manipulable, and when more ethical people are keeping him within bounds, he's not good, but at least not this level of active harm.

It's odd. I feel like I'm living with the Mirror of Galadriel. I can See what is, and I can See where we need to be, but I can't see the way to get there from here. So I keep dropping what I can See, hoping that others can find the path.

Re: Well ...

[ysabetwordsmith]

The part driving me batshit is that I can see plenty of ways to go in a better direction.

People just damn well don't want to do that. They do not. A sufficient majority want to be here, doing this, to make it happen. The ones who don't want it, who want something else, are a small minority. There was that attempt at impeachment that only served to confirm the ignoramus can do whatever he wants and never be held accountable for any of it. There had been several candidates for President who could have done much to fix what can be fixed, but people chose not to vote for them. At any time in the past several decades, people could have taken effective steps to address climate change, and they still aren't.

The prevailing preference of humanity is the clusterfuck we are in.